To understand why I believe that a form of utopia is possible, I'll begin by examining today's exponentially increasing population.
To help comprehend what today's exponentially increasing population means, let's look at a realistic projection of population growth using the well known formula: Pn=2(Cn-x+1)(Cx-1)/(C-1) where P = population, n = generations, C = ½ the number of children per family, and x = average number of generations alive.
If x = 3 (the number of generations that the parents are alive) and C = 1 (two children per family) the population growth rate is zero.
Using this formula, and correlating it with our current population trend, the population in the year 2190 will be 18 billion.
Further calculations show that by the year 2200 there'll be 42.
7 billion people and 144.
2 billion by the year 2300.
Wow -- with this ominous possibility, what do you think needs to be done, and how can self replicating androids and helium 3 save the day? Moreover, how can these projections result in a utopian existence? Consider this.
If all of the world's population in the year 2050 (anticipated to be 9.
1 billion people) were to consume oil at the rate currently consumed by the industrialized world, oil consumption would grow from about 33 billion barrels of oil per year to about 1,875 billion barrels of oil per year.
At this rate of consumption, Saudi's super giant oil reservoir would be used up in about 1.
7 months.
To resolve this potential dilemma we'll most likely solve our energy problem by using hydrogen made from water as our portable fuel, and stationary electric power with fusion (not fission) nuclear.
But what about other non-renewable materials? As you can see, by the year 2190 the world's population could be 18 billion -- almost three times more than exists today.
While most readers of this article will not be alive at that time, many of their children, and grand children will.
Considering the fact that the number of people currently entering the industrialized economy each year is about 2 percent, it's not unreasonable to assume that non-renewable resources will be consumed at a much greater rate than they are today.
In fact -- let's do some simple arithmetic.
Currently -- of the seven billion people living today, only about 1.
31 billion are consuming non-renewable materials at the rate being consumed by the United States.
Using an Excel spreadsheet, multiply 1.
31 billion by 1.
02 to represent the increase in next year's industrialized consumers.
Now continue this process for 74 more years to represent the number of industrialized consumers in the year 2090.
As you'll see, the number is 5.
56 billion rather than 1.
31 billion.
This represents a consumption rate that is 4.
33 times what it is today.
If, for some reason, all of the world's population at that time consumed non-renewable materials at this assumed industrialized rate it would be 13.
85 times what it is today.
What this means is that plastics, iron, aluminum, cobalt, titanium, nickel, etcetera would need to be produced much faster, and if nothing is done to anticipate this situation, manufactured product prices will most likely skyrocket.
This is an ominous situation, and it's lurking in the not too distant future.
So what can be done? How about turning lemons into lemonade? First of all let me make one thing clear.
There is no shortage of most non-renewable materials on planet Earth -- at least for the foreseeable future.
The problem is finding them and extracting/delivering them economically at an increasingly faster rate.
But here is where we make our lemonade.
What didn't make economic sense in the past, could make economic sense in the future.
When the demand for non-renewable materials increases exponentially we can provide jobs for poor and destitute people.
How about mining low grade ore deposits and recycling jobs? How about using solar power to make and sell hydrogen fuel (as described in previous articles on saving a village in India).
How about using mass produced/low cost remote controlled zeppelins to form a global transportation network? Regardless of whether or not the above mentioned ideas are implemented, the fact that the Middle East will run out of oil in the next 30 to 40 years creates a circumstance that nobody seems to be addressing.
And, it could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
Stay tuned -- and I'll explain more about how our current condition may eventually lead to my projected utopia.
This may shock you.